Belgrade as the New Riyadh: A Diplomatic Hub between the West and the East

Introduction

Riyadh has emerged as a new diplomatic center in the current world of rising tensions and multipolarity. This was highlighted by Trump’s decision to host high-profile talks on ending the Ukraine war in Saudi Arabia, although its status in world affairs has long been emerging.

Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest economies and oil producers, a member of the G20 and OPEC, and well-positioned in the global economic and political affairs. Its geopolitical position in the heart of the Arabian peninsula, right between the West and the East, allows it to carefully thread the military, diplomatic, and economic challenges of the multipolar world.

Although smaller than Saudi Arabia, Serbia shares a similar geopolitical position that it can leverage to become an important diplomatic hub. Its central geographic location, historic and cultural ties, and ongoing diplomatic efforts are contributing toward this goal. However, Serbia’s diplomatic path also faces challenges, such as complex relationships in the region and its aspirations for European Union membership.

Becoming a diplomatic hub would benefit Serbia’s political influence, which it could use to strengthen its status as the regional leader and develop stronger relationships with major global powers, including the United States. It could also attract economic growth through foreign investment, trade, and tourism.

Why did Trump pick Riyadh?

Since the beginning of the second Trump administration, Saudi Arabia has quickly emerged as one of the key strategic partners of the United States. Trump’s first call with a foreign leader after taking office was with the Saudi Arabian crown prince, who informed Trump of the plans to invest $600 billion in the US, signifying a deepening political as well as economic partnership. Trump then followed by choosing Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip in the second term. The importance of Riyadh was ultimately highlighted by the series of US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks on ending the war.

Riyadh’s relationship with the US and other key countries is only one side of the story. Some countries that have traditionally hosted diplomatic talks, including Switzerland, have found themselves needing to choose a side in the increasingly polarized world, especially after the beginning of the Ukraine war. This has made them perceived as not neutral by some, making them an unlikely place for high-profile war negotiations, while Saudi Arabia has naturally filled this void.

In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Saudi crown prince had another asset: a longstanding relationship with Vladimir Putin. Saudi Arabia has been developing its partnership with Russia over the years, through increased multilateral meetings and OPEC+ coordination of oil production. It has also maintained a “positively neutral” stance with both Ukrainian and Russian officials, a long-term investment which paid off in the diplomatic stage. However, this is only a part of the larger Saudi efforts to improve its global position.

The Saudi multipolar balancing act

Saudi Arabia’s status as an emerging power is multi-faceted, as it includes balancing economic, military, and diplomatic challenges both in the world and in the turbulent region of the Middle East. Given the regional instability, it became a necessary security partner, especially since the beginning of the Gaza war. It has further been positioning itself as a key partner for global stability, maintaining strong relations with the traditional Western partners while also developing ties with China and Russia. This allows Saudi Arabia to pursue its own economic and political interests without being overly reliant on only one side.

Relations with the West

Riyadh does several things to maintain its relations with the West:

• Strategic US partnership: There is a long-term commitment to a security partnership with the United States, particularly in defense and energy. The US has provided security guarantees and military support, while Saudi Arabia has provided a reliable oil supply and prices.

  
  

• Economic investment: The Kingdom continues to invest heavily in Europe and even more so in the United States (especially during the two Trump administrations), with deals ranging up to hundreds of billions of US dollars. This shows it as a committed economic partner of the West and gives it leverage in other areas.

  
  

• Military imports: Saudi Arabia is investing in its defense modernization, buying weapons mostly from Western nations, with the US and European countries being its main sources of military imports. This has been highlighted recently by a $140 billion US-Saudi arms deal.

Relations with the East

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has also been steadily developing its relations with China and Russia:

• Partnership with China: Being Saudi Arabia’s largest trade partner, China holds an outsize importance to the Saudi economy. The partnership has been further deepened through cooperation in energy, finance, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

  
  

• Engagement with Russia: Despite the post-2022 international isolation of Russia, Saudi Arabia has maintained a constructive relationship with Russia through multilateral meetings. Being two of the largest energy producers, they have also cooperated through OPEC+ on global oil markets.

  
  

• BRICS invitation: The Kingdom received an invitation back in 2023, which it still hasn’t accepted. While attending the bloc meetings, it is still wary of joining and endangering its relations with the US, which has threatened retaliation over the possible replacement of the US dollar as a reserve currency.

Relations in the region

Besides balancing between the major global powers, Saudi Arabia has been active in improving its regional position:

• Economic development: With the ambitious “Vision 2030” of economic diversification outside the oil exports, it is heavily investing in sectors like tourism, technology, and renewable energy, which requires building relationships with a wider range of countries, especially in the region.

  
  

• Diplomatic activity: Saudi Arabia has taken on a more active role in regional diplomacy, being pragmatic despite historic antagonisms and open conflicts. To bolster its regional standing, it has made several diplomatic overtures, thawing relations with Iran, Houthis, Qatar, and potentially Israel.

  
  

• Regional cooperation: It maintains strong economic relations through the Gulf Cooperation Council and OPEC, but also political and cultural ties through the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. It has further invested in rebuilding the region after conflicts, particularly in Syria and Gaza.

The benefits for Belgrade

Serbia stands to gain significant benefits from improving its status and positioning itself as a diplomatic hub:

• International influence: Serbia would enhance its ability to engage in international affairs more effectively, allowing it to advocate for its national interests within multilateral forums and strengthen its voice on issues of regional and global relevance.

  
  

• Stronger relationships: Intense diplomatic activity would create stronger relations with other countries, potentially leading to strategic partnerships, trade agreements, and other forms of cooperation.

  
  

• Regional stability: Serbia could contribute to regional stability by deepening cross-border cooperation in key areas such as economic integration, infrastructure connectivity, border management, and the fight against organized crime. By aligning itself more closely with U.S.-supported regional initiatives and demonstrating a constructive approach to neighborhood relations, Serbia would position itself as a reliable and pragmatic partner for Washington in the Western Balkans.

  
  

• Economic growth:

  • Foreign investment: Increased international attention would help Serbia, as businesses want to establish themselves in strategically important countries.

  • Trade: More trust and increased frequency of the multilateral relations would potentially result in more trade, but also a larger and more diversified trade network, allowing Serbia to be less reliant on a single country.

  • Tourism: A diplomatic hub would likely attract more visitors, such as diplomats, business travelers, and tourists interested in experiencing Serbian culture.

What can Belgrade learn from Riyadh?

Serbia doesn’t have the economic size or the natural resources of Saudi Arabia, but it shares a similar geopolitical position, carefully balanced between the major powers in a multipolar world. It can learn from Saudi Arabia on how to use its strengths to achieve a better international position.

Here’s an overview of the key learning points for Serbia:

• Diversified partnerships: Maintain relationships with a wide range of countries, including the US, China, Russia, but also regional powers. Just as Saudi Arabia asserts its national interests while engaging with different international actors, Serbia should avoid being led by the interests of any single power.

  
  

• Regional influence: Serbia is a major player in the Balkan economy and security framework, just as Saudi Arabia is in the Middle East. Complex relationships and history of the region shouldn’t be an obstacle to Serbia’s regional position, as it can learn from Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic overtures in its regional relations.

  
  

• Economic leverage: Saudi Arabia uses its economic power through investments, trade, and energy to achieve its interests. Similarly, Serbia can use its economic potential to strengthen its relationships with key partners. Serbia could focus on specific sectors where it has an advantage, like agriculture, IT, or manufacturing, to attract more targeted investments.

  
  

• Diplomatic activity: Saudi Arabia has visibly increased its diplomatic work, hosting more bilateral meetings, summits, and other events, with long-term diplomatic investment in mind. Serbia could similarly attempt to increase its activities, with a focus on the Balkan region and specific areas where it has a comparative advantage.

  
  

• Specialized diplomacy: Just as Saudi Arabia has advantages in its religious heritage (birthplace of Islam) and energy sector, Serbia could identify its specialties and create targeted diplomatic strategies. Examples include cultural ties to Slavic and Orthodox nations, connections to the Global South through past involvement in the Non-Aligned Movement, or its potential in specific industries like IT and agriculture.

Comparison with the other diplomatic hubs

Here is a comparison of Serbia with several countries that have recently hosted notable diplomatic negotiations, through the lens of their economies, international connections, and geographic positions:

• Sum of distances between each capital (Riyadh, Doha, Muscat, Ankara, Bern, and Belgrade) and the capitals of four major powers (US – Washington, EU – Brussels, Russia – Moscow, China – Beijing). Data from Google Maps “Measure distance” tool.

Recommendations for policymakers

• Strengthen Serbia’s position in the region: Take concrete and measurable steps toward improving relationships with countries in the region, for example, by making symbolic diplomatic overtures. Invest in developing the economic cooperation further, in particular through stronger participation in the Open Balkan and by joining the Three Seas Initiative.

  
  

• Improve global connectivity: Make Serbia more reachable from other countries by air and other means. Focus on expanding the flight network, adding new countries and destinations, especially from key countries in different world regions. The recent expansion of flights from Belgrade (Tbilisi, Geneva, potentially Miami) is a step in the right direction.

  
  

• Expand diplomatic connections: Increase permanent presence in regions with few diplomatic missions from Serbia, with a focus on key regional players, such as Thailand in Southeast Asia. Try to attract opening new missions from other countries in Serbia, for example, the remaining European countries that are still not present.

  
  

• Develop presence in international organizations: Work towards joining important organizations, such as the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Cooperation and Development (OECD), which would enable Serbia to host economic, trade, and other specialized negotiations.